The American People Have Not Spoken: Why Relinquishing the Senate Doesn’t Mean Compromise

(Cartoon via Political Irony / John Jonik)

Last night, as expected, Republicans essentially ran the table on win-able Senate seats and took control of the United States Senate.

Afterwards, soon-to-be former Senate minority leader Harry Reid (D) tweeted the following:

“I congratulate [Republican] Sen McConnell, who will become Majority Leader. Voters made clear they want us to work together. I stand ready to do that.”

At first glance, one might be compelled by the argument that last night served is a rejection of the current gridlock between Congress and the presidential administration. To go one step further, the elections arguably served as a resistance to the President’s — and, by extension, Democratic — policies. For one, the Republicans did do an effective job of linking senate, house, and even gubernatorial races to the current Democratic administration’s policies. And moreover, ABC exit polls hold that 31 percent of voters were casting a ballot against  the current presidential administration. In fact, fifty-four percent of voters said they disapprove of the President’s job performance.

Indeed, quite frankly, the whooping Democrats took last night seemingly appears to be an articulation of contempt towards the status quo — and a strong nod in favor of Republican policies. Harry Reid, alas, may be correct when asserting that “voters have made it clear that they want compromise.”

However, these assertions do not fare well upon a more thorough examination of last night’s elections.

First, the same exit polls cited above hold that “61 percent expressed that they were dissatisfied or even angry with the Republican leaders in Congress,” nearly twice the number of voters expressing contempt for the President.

Second — and more importantly — the voters of yesterday’s elections do not accurately reflect the electorate at-large. Typically, Democratic-base voters — people of color and young folks, especially — don’t turnout in midterms. This year was no deviation from that norm.

Consider the following from ABC’s exit poll:

Race/ethnicity:

• Whites: a more Republican voting group -– account for 75 percent of voters in preliminary exit poll results, up from 72 percent, a record low, in 2012.

• Nonwhites: a more Democratic voting group -– account for 25 percent of voters, down from 28 percent, a record high, in 2012.

Age:

• Millennials (Voters age 18-29): a more Democratic voting group, make up just 12 percent of voters -- down from 19 percent in 2012. That's the same as it was in 2010. Note, however, that younger voters may turn out later, so their share may rise in later data.

• Older voters (Age 65+): make up 26 percent of voters, up sharply from 17 percent in 2012. Note, however, that older voters often turn out early, so their share may decline in later data.

On the other hand, United States Census reports that “non-Hispanic or Latino whites make-up 62.6% percent of the population,” which, puts the non-white at just under 38%. In reference to age: people 65 years and older only constitute 14% of the population; and those aged 18-29 are 16% of the population.

In short, this means: 1) yesterday’s turnout is not reflective of 2012’s general election; and 2) yesterday’s turnout is not reflective of the US population at-large.

This is, of course, not to suggest that these elections aren’t significant; indeed, the fact that Democrats didn’t turnout is a problem that Democrats are partially responsible, save for the voter ID laws. However, this empirical fact certainly curtails the long leap that folks take when they suggest these victories constitute a Republican mandate.

Ultimately, the nod has not been given to Republicans, and it is thus up to Reid and President Obama to resist the plethora of right-wing legislation that is anxiously waiting to emerge. 

No compromise — no, no.